Market Highlight 15.04.2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in its latest forecast update that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could push global economic growth down to levels typically seen only during recent recessions. The war in Iran has caused greater disruption to global energy markets than the 1973 oil crisis. In the worst-case scenario, assuming the war drags on but ends by the end of this year, oil prices would remain around 100 USD/barrel for most of the year, global growth could slow further to around 2,6%, and inflation could rise to 5,4%. The IMF said emerging market economies that depend on fuel imports may face the greatest challenges. The longer the war lasts, the more likely it is to trigger global food shortages, political instability, and stress in financial markets. According to the IMF, the U.S, with its large energy industry and dominant role in the development of Artificial Intelligence, is likely to weather the shock better than others. However, if the war persists, major Central Banks such as the FED could quickly face a difficult trade-off between containing inflation and protecting an already fragile economy.

The USD Index posted a seventh consecutive daily decline last night as markets grew more optimistic about the chances of a peace agreement between the U.S and Iran, while U.S producer inflation (PPI) came in below expectations. Chicago FED President Austan Goolsbee said rate cuts may have to wait until 2027, depending on how long oil prices remain elevated. Domestically, interbank USD/VND traded mainly around 26.340 yesterday, pressured by the weakening of the USD in global markets.

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