Market Highlight 15.04.2025

China’s exports surged by 12,4% year-on-year in March, significantly above the 2,3% growth recorded in the first two months of the year and well beyond the 4,4% forecast. The sharp acceleration in outbound shipments likely reflects efforts by exporters to frontload orders ahead of the 145% tariff hike announced by U.S President Donald Trump, which is set to take effect in April. Overall, China’s exports in the first quarter rose 5,8% year-on-year, while imports declined by 7%. With the new tariffs now in force, export momentum is expected to weaken significantly in the coming months.
Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 and opening its economy to foreign capital and global markets, China has rapidly emerged as the world’s leading goods exporter, overtaking the United States in 2008. While China has expanded its manufacturing footprint, the U.S economy has increasingly specialized in service-oriented output, including software and other forms of intellectual property. The U.S currently exports over $1 trillion in services annually - more than any other country. Moreover, U.S service exports are often underreported due to corporate practices that shift ownership of intellectual property developed domestically  - such as patents and trademarks - to foreign affiliates to minimize tax obligations. In 2023 alone, the U.S exported $23 billion worth of advertising services.

In Vietnam, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate continued its upward trajectory, closing the previous session at 25.830, driven by several large-scale USD purchase flows. As the market enters the second half of April, demand for foreign currency is expected to rise sharply, reinforcing upward pressure on the exchange rate, even as the USD remains under correction globally without clear signs of reversal.

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