Market Highlight 15.01.2026

Export growth of 5,5% helped China post a record trade surplus of USD 1,19 trillion in 2025, despite a sharp decline in shipments to the U.S. When President D. Trump returned to the White House last year, economists widely anticipated that new tariffs would weigh heavily on China’s vast export engine. However, according to data released by China’s customs authorities on Wednesday, exports rose by 5,5% year on year in 2025, although this still marked a moderation from the 5,9% increase recorded in 2024. While exports to the U.S declined, Chinese manufacturers were able to secure new customers across other parts of the world. The global economy, underpinned by robust spending on artificial intelligence (AI), continued to expand at a solid pace, sustaining relatively stable demand, while falling production costs made Chinese goods increasingly attractive to overseas buyers. Strong export performance helped propel China’s economy to grow faster than expected last year, even as its property sector and consumer sentiment remained subdued. Exports from China to the U.S fell by 20% in 2025, while shipments to Southeast Asia rose by 13%, exports to the European Union increased by 8,4%, deliveries to Latin America climbed by 7,4%, and exports to Africa surged by 26%.

The USD Index edged down by 0,12% yesterday following U.S retail sales and Producer price data for December, as markets also awaited a ruling from the U.S Supreme Court on the legality of the reciprocal tariffs imposed by President D. Trump, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Domestically, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate rose to 26.310 early yesterday before easing back to 26.280 by the end of the session. The market is expected to continue trading steadily around the 26.250 - 26.300 range today.

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