Market Highlight 14.09.2026

The U.S Department of Labor announced on Friday that inflation remained stable at +3,4% in August. The result was in line with market expectations and unchanged from the July CPI reading. Goods prices excluding food and energy rose by 2,4% from the same period last year. However, core goods prices increased by 0,3% in August, higher than in July and above expectations. After analyzing the components of the CPI report, economists now estimate that core PCE inflation rose by 3,4% YoY, indicating that underlying price pressures remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. The market immediately raised the probability of a 0,25% FED rate hike at the 16/9 meeting to around 85%. Before the CPI report was released, the probability stood at only around 70%. The FED’s decision is further complicated by the sharp rise in oil prices in September, with crude oil exceeding 100 USD/barrel in last Friday’s session, compared with 85,76 USD/barrel at the end of August. This raises the possibility of another rate hike in Q4 in addition to the expected September move.
The USD Index rose sharply after the U.S CPI data were released but later corrected lower as market sentiment remained negative amid escalating conflict in Iran, which continued to push oil prices higher. Brent crude rose by around 8% last week as tensions intensified along the Red Sea coast and around strategic islands located on this critical global shipping route.
Interbank USD/VND traded steadily around 25.925 on Friday, with an intraday high of 25.940. The upward trend could gain further support this week amid the increasing likelihood of a FED rate hike.

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