Market Highlight 14.07.2026

Tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate for a third consecutive day, with U.S attacks on Iran’s military infrastructure and a new blockade on Iran’s trade activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets and Middle Eastern producers appear to be converging on a new reality: the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to its pre-war state. Renewed fighting over the weekend and President D. Trump’s announcement that the U.S embargo on Iranian cargo shipments through the strait would be reimposed pushed Brent crude and U.S crude futures up by nearly 10%, wiping out a month-long decline in oil prices as clashes in the Persian Gulf had eased and tanker shipping activity appeared to be returning to normal. Brent crude surged by 9,6% to 83,3 USD/barrel, its largest daily percentage gain since May 2020, when oil prices were gradually recovering from the collapse caused by Covid-19 lockdowns. U.S crude also rose by 9,4% to 78,14 USD/barrel, the fourth-largest daily gain in 2026.

Oil prices could face further upside risks as inventories around the world have been depleted since the conflict began in February, especially the U.S Strategic Petroleum Reserve. U.S Government crude oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1983. Many countries in Asia are buying more oil from Latin America, West Africa, and the U.S to replenish strategic reserves, in order to reduce the risk of dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.

The USD Index rose by 0,3% on Monday, supported by escalating tensions in the Gulf and as the market awaited the U.S June CPI report due tonight. Domestically, interbank USD/VND corrected lower to the 26.250 area yesterday.

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