Market Highlight 13.11.2024

The USD reached its highest level in 6,5 months against major currencies yesterday as markets anticipated that the import tariff policies of President-elect Donald Trump would reignite U.S inflation. Specifically, the USD Index rose by more than 0,4% by the end of the day, approaching 106 level, its highest since May 2024. Conversely, the EUR dropped to a seven-month low, and the CNY reached its lowest point in over 3 months, as both Europe and China are potential targets for Trump’s tariff policies. The euro is also under additional pressure from political uncertainty, as Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, will hold elections on February 23, eleven weeks after the coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed. Financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JPMorgan hold a negative outlook on the EUR’s prospects for 2025. Should the Republican Party gain full control of Congress, enabling President Trump to swiftly and comprehensively implement his tariff agenda, the EUR could drop to between $0,95 and $1. Meanwhile, the USD/CNY pair could return to the $7,4 range, as China is expected to be a primary target of U.S import tariffs over the next 4 years. However, the USD has historically weakened by approximately 10% during Trump’s first term, and a similar trend could unfold in the upcoming term.

The USD/VND interbank rate, impacted by the general upward trend of the USD, closed yesterday at 25.355. Global market pressure remains significant, with the potential for the USD Index to surpass 107 level, suggesting that the exchange rate may not cool down soon.

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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn