Market Highlight 13.10.2026

According to Goldman Sachs, the CNY is undervalued by around 20% - 25% in the global foreign exchange market, which records daily trading volume of approximately 9,5 trillion USD. The bank forecasts that the CNY will strengthen to around 6,4 per USD from the current level of approximately 6,69 within the next year, with the possibility of reaching 6 in the medium term. The last time China’s currency traded near 6 per USD was in early 2014, when hot money flowed strongly into the country’s financial markets. The renminbi’s underlying strength appears even greater when China’s current-account performance and trade balance are taken into consideration. Official data show that the world’s second-largest economy recorded a trade surplus of 805,5 billion USD in the first 8 months of 2026.

Goldman Sachs’ view comes as China faces growing criticism from major trading partners over claims that it is using a weak CNY to support exports. However, the Chinese Government has stressed that exchange-rate adjustments would not resolve structural imbalances in the global economy, while arguing that China’s export strength reflects its increasingly competitive industrial capabilities. The CNY has now appreciated against most major currencies and reached a four-year high against the USD despite the strong recovery in the USD amid geopolitical tensions and persistently high global inflation. China’s growing role as a provider of global capital also marks a new stage in the internationalization of the CNY.

Interbank USD/VND rose sharply on the first trading day of the week as USD payment demand increased during the second half of the month. The market closed yesterday at 25.940.

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