Market Highlight 13.08.2026

U.S inflation stood at 3,4% in July, edging lower from the previous month and providing the Federal Reserve with further room to keep interest rates unchanged. Peace negotiations in the Middle East helped gasoline prices ease slightly. Gasoline prices fell by 2,9% in July from June, although they remained 25% higher than a year earlier. Meanwhile, U.S core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0,2% MoM in July. This relatively modest increase offered some hope that broader price pressures may be easing. For inflation to return sustainably to the FED’s 2% target, the economy will likely need not only lower gasoline prices but also slower price increases in areas such as housing, airfares, and auto insurance. Wednesday’s report may give the FED additional reason to wait and assess whether inflation continues to trend lower rather than attempting to restrain it through further rate hikes. Following the report, the market is now pricing in around a 60% probability that the FED will keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, up from nearly 55% the previous day and around 50% at the beginning of this week. The FED will still have August inflation and labor market data available to further assess the state of the economy.

The USD strengthened on Wednesday after U.S consumer inflation in July came in broadly in line with market expectations, even as expectations for the timing of the FED’s next potential rate hike were pushed back. The USD was also supported by higher oil prices as the market focused on discussions over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Attention now turns to producer price inflation data due on Thursday and U.S July retail sales figures on Friday.

Interbank USD/VND fell sharply by a further VND 60 yesterday and closed the day at 26.070. The SBV continued to raise the effective daily ceiling sharply to 26.815.

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