Market Highlight 13.07.2026

Economists forecast that the war in the Middle East will leave the U.S economy facing more persistent inflation. The world’s largest economy is expected to grow by 2,1% this year, up from the previous estimate of 2% in April, supported by the appeal of the U.S economy as the world’s largest crude oil exporter and the strong wave of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Growth in 2025 was 2%. The average probability of a recession over the next 12 months, as estimated by economists, has fallen from 33% in April to 25%, the lowest level since early 2025. Inflation concerns have spread across many sectors, stemming from the impact of the war on energy prices. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, is forecast to rise by 3,2% in 2026.

Oil prices fell to a low of 68,55 USD/barrel on 6/7 after the U.S and Iran reached a two-month ceasefire agreement and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, conflicts resumed and President D. Trump declared that the ceasefire agreement had ended, causing oil prices to recover and close at 71,41 USD/barrel last Friday, still well below the peak reached during the conflict. In the period ahead, most forecasts suggest that oil prices will move sideways, ending December 2026 at around 70 USD/barrel.

Interbank USD/VND closed last week at around 26.265, down by about VND 30 from the start of the week, as USD supply at the beginning of the month was relatively abundant in the market. The downward trend was also pressured by the weakening of the USD in global markets, with the USD Index at one point falling to 100,6. The SBV continued to raise the daily ceiling by a further VND 3 to 26.474.

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