Market Highlight 13.04.2026

U.S consumer prices rose 3,3% in March from a year earlier, according to the report released by the Labor Department last Friday night. This was significantly higher than the 2,4% increase recorded in February and also marked the highest reading in two years. U.S energy prices rose 12,5% YoY, accelerating sharply from the 0,5% increase in the previous month, driven by an 18,9% rise in gasoline prices and a steep 44,2% jump in fuel oil prices. Transportation services costs, which are affected by fuel prices, increased 4,1% YoY in March. Friday’s report provided the first broad assessment of how the war in Iran has affected U.S inflation. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping flows and drove crude oil and gasoline prices sharply higher last month.

The USD slipped 0,1% on Friday, posting its largest weekly decline (-1,5%) since the start of this year, as markets reduced safe-haven positioning on the assumption that oil shipments would resume if the ceasefire in Iran were successfully negotiated. So far, however, positive signals from the Strait of Hormuz remain very limited. In the first 24 hours of the ceasefire, only one oil tanker and five cargo vessels passed through the strait, compared with around 140 ships per day before the war. By this morning, both oil prices and the USD had risen sharply again after talks between the U.S and Iran failed to produce an agreement, threatening the fragile ceasefire and leaving the shortage of exportable energy from the Middle East unresolved. Amid rising expectations of a renewed inflation outbreak, some Central Banks, such as those in Europe and the UK, may now lean toward rate hikes this year, in sharp contrast to pre-war expectations of rate cuts or policy rates being kept unchanged.

Interbank USD/VND closed last Friday near 26.340, continuing to trade within the narrow 26.330 – 26.350 range that has held for more than two weeks.

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