Market Highlight 12.10.2026

Higher gasoline prices could push headline inflation in the U.S higher in September even as underlying price pressures have eased. The most important economic release this week, the U.S Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to rise by 0,6% to its highest level in 5 months, following a 0,4% increase in the previous month. Excluding fuel and food, core CPI could increase by 0,2%, easing from August. U.S retail gasoline prices reached nearly 4,5 USD/gallon in late September, the highest level in four months. On Friday, President Donald Trump announced an agreement to import diesel from Russia in an effort to ease sharply rising fuel prices. Concerns over affordability and higher prices have weighed on consumer confidence. Although household spending has been a key driver of the world’s largest economy over the past 6 months, consumer concerns are becoming increasingly pronounced. Data due on Thursday are expected to show that U.S retail sales growth may have slowed in September.

The USD Index posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain as tensions in the Middle East continued to boost demand for the USD. Markets expect the Federal Reserve (FED) to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in late October. There is a high probability (85%) that the U.S Central Bank will raise rates by another 0,25% in December, potentially followed by two additional hikes in 2027. FED Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, on Thursday.

Interbank USD/VND fell sharply early last Friday to 25.805 as USD supply in the market remained abundant. However, renewed buying demand helped the exchange rate recover toward the end of the day, closing at 25.885.

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