Market Highlight 12.08.2026

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4,35% on Tuesday but continued to warn that inflation remains too high, particularly against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East. Earlier this year, the RBA raised its official interest rate three times, and the impact of those decisions is still working through the Australian economy. Weaker-than-expected inflation in Q2 provided room for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to pause further rate increases this month. The RBA said it does not expect inflation to return to the target range until the end of 2027 and added that risks remain tilted toward further price increases. The prolonged war in the Middle East also remains a key concern for the Australian Central Bank. ANZ said on Tuesday that it expects house prices in major cities to fall by more than 10% over this period. Australian housing prices have declined sharply in recent months as interest rates increased, while new tax policies that have made property investment less attractive are also putting pressure on the market. Another rate hike is expected later this year as part of the RBA’s efforts to bring currently elevated inflation under control.

The July consumer inflation report, due tonight, together with the August inflation data, could determine whether the FED keeps interest rates unchanged or raises them again at its upcoming September meeting. The FED still has reasons to believe that rates can remain stable, as prices have not shown signs of a broad-based surge, the impact of tariffs appears to be fading, and changes to the calculation methodology for U.S inflation (PCE), which are scheduled to take effect in September, could result in lower reported inflation.

Domestically, USD/VND traded mainly around the 26.120 - 26.145 range on Tuesday and closed the day at 26.130.

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