Market Highlight 12.01.2026

The U.S December inflation (CPI) report, due for release on Tuesday this week, is likely to show an uptick compared with the previous month. This is largely because the November CPI report - which pointed to broad-based disinflation - was distorted by the statistical agency’s inability to collect most price data in October during the U.S Government shutdown, as well as by the assumption that rental price indices were broadly unchanged during that period. Core consumer prices are projected to rise by 2,7% year on year in December. The lack of clear inflation readings, together with signs that the U.S labour market has gradually stabilised after a string of earlier negative reports, helps explain why Federal Reserve officials are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the start of this year. Meanwhile, consumer spending in the fourth quarter is showing signs of resilience. Data to be released on Wednesday may indicate that U.S retail sales continued to grow solidly. Excluding auto dealerships, economists forecast a 0,4% monthly increase in November, in line with the previous month’s pace.

The likelihood of further interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED) is widely seen as contingent on developments in the labour market in the coming months. Although the FED has lowered rates at its three most recent meetings to support a slowing U.S labour market, some policymakers remain concerned that inflation could persist above the 2% target. This may constrain the pace of monetary easing going forward. Markets continue to price in two rate cuts by the FED in 2026, with the first expected around mid-year.

The USD/VND exchange rate traded relatively steadily within the 26.260 - 26.300 range over the past week, as foreign-currency supply and demand remained broadly balanced. A key support level is currently seen around 26.250, with a downward bias expected to persist into this week.

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