Market Highlight 11.12.2024

China’s export growth decelerated in November, defying earlier expectations from economists who predicted that trade tensions with the U.S would prompt businesses to accelerate shipments ahead of potential tariff increases. According to data released yesterday by the General Administration of Customs, exports grew by 6,7% in November compared to the same period last year, down from the 12,7% increase recorded in October. Exports to the United States rose by 8% year-on-year, while shipments to ASEAN, China’s largest trading partner, increased by 14,9%, slightly below the 15,8% growth rate in October. However, China’s imports continued to decline sharply, falling by 3,9% year-on-year in November, compared to a 2,3% drop in October. This deeper contraction in imports has once again raised concerns about weakening domestic consumption demand. The Chinese Government is expected to unveil stronger measures this week to stimulate domestic consumption and bolster purchasing power within the economy.

The USD Index rose 0,24% yesterday, marking its third consecutive day of gains ahead of the U.S inflation data release scheduled for tonight. Concerns persist over the potential for higher inflation in the closing months of the year, which could compel the Federal Reserve to reassess its 2025 rate-cut trajectory. Despite these concerns, the market remains confident in a 0,25% rate cut by the FED next Thursday. 

Domestically, the USD/VND exchange rate edged lower, closing at 25.365 yesterday. Toward the end of the year, foreign currency inflows, including remittances, have increased, gradually easing upward pressure on the exchange rate. The market is expected to continue trading around the 25.350 level today.

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