Market Highlight 11.03.2026

U.S inflation remained broadly stable in February, but what comes next - now that the country is prosecuting a war in Iran - is the key question markets are focused on. According to a U.S Department of Labor report released on Wednesday, consumer prices rose 2,4% in February year-on-year. The report is unlikely to shift the FED’s data-dependent, wait-and-see stance that policymakers have adopted since the start of the year. The U.S Central Bank does not primarily anchor on the Labor Department’s inflation gauge, but instead on a separate measure produced by the Commerce Department - the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. That measure has recently been running hotter than the Labor Department’s index, and the gap appears to have widened further in February. Core goods prices (excluding food, energy, and autos) rose 1,7% from a year earlier, marking the largest increase since August 2023 - evidence that President D. Trump’s tariffs continue to add to consumer cost pressures.

The USD strengthened against the EUR (+0,38%) and the JPY (+0,57%) on Wednesday as markets grew more anxious about escalating tensions in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher again amid reported attacks on oil tankers and energy storage facilities. The USD has gained roughly 2% against the EUR since late February, supported by safe-haven demand. Crude prices climbed more than 4% on Wednesday after fresh attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supply. Markets judged that the International Energy Agency’s proposal to release a record 400 million barrels of strategic reserves would be insufficient to meaningfully ease these concerns.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate traded mainly around 26.250 on Wednesday, closing the session at 26.260. Markets will continue to monitor moves in the USD globally through today’s session.

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