Market Highlight 10.10.2024

   The USD Index rose by an additional 0,4% yesterday, despite the release of the September policy meeting Minutes, which revealed that the majority of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee members supported a 0,5% reduction in the benchmark interest rate last month. However, given the current economic context, particularly following highly positive U.S labor market data from last weekend, many FED members have publicly supported smaller rate cuts in the final 2 months of this year. The market is currently pricing in an 83% likelihood that the FED will lower the policy rate by another 0,25% at its upcoming November meeting, with a 17% chance that no changes will be made to the policy.
   According to data from the General Statistics Office (GSO), in the first 9 months of 2024, Vietnam’s total trade with the world reached $578,4 billion, with the 6 largest markets (including China, the U.S, ASEAN, the EU, South Korea, and Japan) accounting for 78,6%, or $455,1 billion. Notably, Vietnam spent $105 billion importing goods from China, making it the largest import market in the first 9 months of 2024. Compared to the same period last year, imports from China increased by 32,5%, while for the entire year of 2023, Vietnam spent $110,6 billion on imports from this country. Conversely, China was Vietnam’s second-largest export market, with exports totaling $43,6 billion, a 1% increase from the same period last year.
   The interbank USD/VND exchange rate continued to experience a stable trading day yesterday, remaining primarily between 24.825 and 24.850. The exchange rate is forecasted to see a slight increase today, as the market anticipates the release of key U.S CPI data this evening, which could significantly influence the USD’s trend for the second half of October. The exchange rate has risen by approximately 1,12% since the beginning of October, and when calculated from the start of the year, it has recorded an increase of around 2,35%.

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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn