Market Highlight 09.10.2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday urged the Chinese Government to stimulate domestic consumption amid rising household savings, while warning of the potential drag from U.S tariffs on economic growth. According to the IMF, although the average U.S tariff rate has fallen from 23% in April to 17,5% currently, it remains significantly higher than pre-Trump administration levels. Preliminary data showed that retail sales and restaurant revenues in China rose 3,3% during the first 4 days of the eight-day National Day holiday, broadly matching August’s 3,4% growth, but lagging the 6,3% increase recorded during the five-day Labor Day holiday in May. Earlier this week, the World Bank raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to +4,8% from +4%, citing modest resilience but warning that growth momentum may slow next year amid fragile consumer and business confidence.

Global gold prices surpassed the USD 4.000/oz mark for the first time ever on Wednesday (October 8), as investors sought safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainty and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold has risen 54% year-to-date, following a 27% increase in 2024, making it one of the best-performing assets of 2025, far outpacing global equities, while both the USD and crude oil prices have declined. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold price forecast from USD 4.300/oz to USD 4.900/oz, citing continued Central bank purchases and stronger inflows into gold ETFs.

The USD/VND interbank rate traded within a narrow range of 26.355 - 26,365 on Wednesday, a level consistent with trading patterns observed since the start of the week. With foreign exchange demand currently balanced, the interbank rate is expected to remain stable around 26.350 throughout the day.

Please contact the nearest Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank's branch to receive information and consultancy if you are in need of making any foreign exchange and derivatives transactions.

Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank assumes no responsibility or liability for any purpose of reference or using the information provided by this newsletter.

Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn