Market Highlight 09.07.2026

The Minutes of the 16 - 17/6 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), released on Thursday morning, reflected policymakers’ growing concerns over inflation, while worries about the U.S labor market eased somewhat. At the June meeting, the FED announced that it would keep the policy rate unchanged at 3,5% - 3,75%, in the first meeting under the leadership of Chair Kevin Warsh.

Under the forecast scenario in which U.S inflation remains elevated due to strong demand from artificial intelligence, energy prices, and high tariffs, most FED members believed that “policy tightening may be necessary.” Those concerns were reinforced just one week later by personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, which showed a 4,1% increase in May from a year earlier, the highest rise since April 2023. This was mainly due to the impact of the Iran war on energy prices, but core inflation also increased by 3,4%. The FED will continue to monitor June consumer price data, due to be released on 14/7, which may focus on non-energy factors driving inflation. The data will be released on the same day that FED Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on monetary policy, his first congressional hearing since taking office on 22/5.

The USD edged lower after reaching its highest level in about a week on Wednesday night, following U.S President D. Trump’s statement that the temporary memorandum signed with Iran to end the conflict had “ended.” The probability of a FED rate hike in July has risen to 30%, while the probability for September stands at 65%. Domestically, interbank USD/VND traded steadily around 26.300 yesterday, while the daily ceiling was raised by a further VND 4 to 26.466.

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