Market Highlight 09.03.2026

The U.S labour market shed 92.000 jobs in February, a surprisingly broad-based decline that caught investors off guard at a time when multiple industries are already under strain. The employment report released by the U.S Department of Labor on Friday came in well below January’s 126.000 gain and far short of the prior consensus forecast of a 50.000 increase. While the unemployment rate edged up to 4,4%, the latest figures underscore unsettling weaknesses in a labour market that has already been losing momentum in hiring. Corporate caution - driven by President D. Trump’s frequently shifting tariff policies and expectations that artificial intelligence may reduce labour demand - has weighed on recruitment plans, alongside sharp public-sector job cuts. In theory, such numbers would raise expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to cut policy rates sooner. However, the slowdown in the U.S labour market comes at an awkward moment, as policymakers are also grappling with energy and commodity risks after U.S and Israeli military operations in Iran disrupted critical shipping routes. If oil prices remain above USD 100 per barrel for a prolonged period, the risk of inflation re-accelerating - potentially breaching the FED’s 3% threshold - would increase, reopening the possibility of a rate hike later this year.

The USD Index jumped by more than 0,7% as global markets reopened this morning, while crude oil was trading around USD 108 per barrel at the start of the session (+18%). The USD/VND interbank exchange rate closed last Friday at 26.240, slightly higher than the prior day. At current levels, the exchange rate remains around 0,4% below the reference opening level at the start of 2026.

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