Market Highlight 08.10.2026

The Minutes of the FED meeting signaled that another rate hike could come later this year. Following the September increase, several FED officials indicated that further tightening could wait until December. Most of the 19 participants supported last month’s rate hike after a difficult summer for the Federal Reserve (FED), as U.S inflation failed to cool as previously expected. The U.S policy rate was raised by 0,25% to 3,75% - 4%, marking the first increase since July 2023. For consumers, the sudden surge in fuel prices caused by the Iran war has been a major source of inflation, alongside the Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment boom and Government tariffs. U.S Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on 14/10 could provide a clearer signal on the likelihood of a FED rate hike in December.

The USD remains supported as energy prices stay elevated, although oil prices have temporarily eased after the International Energy Agency (IEA) and G7 countries agreed to accelerate the release of oil reserves, with priority given to diesel. Markets are currently pricing in nearly a 20% probability of at least a 0,25% rate hike at the FED’s late-October meeting, down from around 40% a week ago. However, expectations for a December rate hike remain relatively high at above 80%. The EUR fell by nearly 0,6% against the USD yesterday as concerns over France’s public finances intensified ahead of Elections early next year.

Interbank USD/VND traded steadily around 25.975 - 25.985 on Wednesday, while the USD gained 0,4% in global markets. The SBV lowered the central rate by VND 7, bringing the effective daily ceiling down to 26.919.

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