Market Highlight 07.07.2026

The U.S services sector expanded in June at a slower pace, but businesses increased hiring as cost pressures eased. The Institute for Supply Management’s services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reached 54 in June, down from 54,5 in May. A temporary peace agreement between the U.S and Iran has pushed oil and gasoline prices lower in recent weeks, after they had risen sharply for nearly four months. Although businesses still face other cost pressures, the cooling of fuel prices, together with stable consumer demand, has given firms more momentum to proceed with hiring plans. In addition, World Cup-related hiring may have contributed to the increase in the employment index.

The war in Iran may have ended, but its implications for global monetary policy will persist. According to Bloomberg Economics, with the Middle East’s current fragile ceasefire, the interest-rate path of Central Banks around the world has now shifted higher in the coming years. Aggregated interest-rate forecasts show an upward shift of as much as 0,5% or more through 2028 compared with pre-war expectations. This outlook reflects rising inflation risks, including risks that may emerge from the race to adopt artificial intelligence, while the recovery of crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take more time.

Domestically, interbank USD/VND continued to trade steadily around 26.300 on Monday, with the intraday low recorded in the morning at 26.295. The USD Index has now posted its third consecutive daily decline.

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