Market Highlight 07.05.2025

According to newly released data from the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), Vietnam’s export turnover in April 2025 is estimated at USD 37,45 billion, down 2,8% from the previous month but up 19,8% year-on-year. Import turnover reached USD 36,87 billion, remaining flat from March but rising 22,9% compared to the same period last year. Cumulatively, total import-export turnover in the first 4 months of the year amounted to USD 276,89 billion, a 15,7% increase year-on-year, with exports up 13% and imports up 18,6%. The April merchandise trade surplus stood at USD 0,58 billion, bringing the cumulative trade surplus to USD 3,79 billion, down from USD 9,06 billion during the same period last year. The export results for April indicate a clear impact from the U.S tariff policy - Vietnam’s largest export market - on the country’s overall trade performance.

Policymakers at the U.S Federal Reserve are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the May policy meeting concluding early Thursday morning as they await clearer signals on the direction of U.S trade policy. The decision may disappoint President Donald Trump, whose aggressive rounds of tariff hikes on imports are dampening consumer confidence, fueling inflation expectations, and weakening labor market conditions. However, recent data shows inflation moderated in March while the unemployment rate remained stable in April. The FED is projected to begin cutting rates as early as the July 29 - 30 meeting, with the potential for 2 to 3 additional cuts by the end of 2025.

The domestic market remains relatively calm ahead of the FED’s May policy meeting and as investors await the outcome of the first round of trade negotiations between Vietnam and the United States on May 7. The USD/VND exchange rate is expected to remain stable within the range of 25.950 - 26.050 today.

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