Market Highlight 07.01.2026

The USD strengthened by 0,24% against major currencies on Tuesday, while the EUR weakened following softer-than-expected inflation data from Europe. Markets remain focused on U.S labour market data due later this week to assess the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in early 2026. Investors are also weighing mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the interest-rate path this year. Richmond FED President Tom Barkin said on Tuesday that the FED’s rate decisions need to be guided by incoming data, given the risks facing both the unemployment and inflation objectives. Meanwhile, Minneapolis FED President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that he sees a risk that the unemployment rate could “jump sharply” in the period ahead. Markets are currently pricing in roughly an 82% probability that the FED will keep policy rates unchanged at its next meeting on January 27 - 28.

The EUR/USD exchange rate fell by nearly 0,3% yesterday after data showed lower-than-forecast inflation in Germany and France in December. Specifically, consumer prices in Germany rose by 2% in December, down from a 2,6% increase in November, while inflation in France also eased to 0,7%. These figures reinforce recent assessments by the European Central Bank that policy rates could be kept unchanged in 2026, provided inflation continues to hover near the 2% target.
The USD/VND interbank exchange rate continued to trade steadily around 26.280 for a second consecutive day. The State Bank of Vietnam lowered the central reference rate by a further VND 2 yesterday, corresponding to the current effective ceiling rate of 26.378. The exchange rate is expected to remain stable within the 26.200 - 26.280 range as markets assess the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves this year.

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