Market Highlight 06.10.2026

The EUR fell to a 17-month low against the USD on Monday as concerns over rising political uncertainty ahead of France’s 2027 election and the financial stability of the euro area’s second-largest economy intensified. The EUR declined by 0,23% to 1,122 USD after falling by nearly 0,8% at one point to as low as 1,116 USD, its weakest level since May 2025. The common European currency is heading toward a fifth consecutive weekly decline against the USD, with a cumulative loss of 3,1%, its longest losing streak since May 2025. Although market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the late-October meeting have declined significantly, concerns over public debt conditions in Europe and the prospect of persistently high inflation continue to support the USD.

On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the U.S Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 54,9 in September from 55,4 in August, below the market forecast of 55,2. The probability of the Federal Reserve (FED) raising interest rates by at least 0,25% at its October meeting has now fallen to nearly 20%, down from 70% a week earlier. However, the probability of another FED rate hike in December remains high at nearly 90%. Oil prices declined on Monday as crude exports from the Middle East showed signs of recovery, while G7 countries pledged to increase supply. Brent crude fell by 0,4% to 101,82 USD/barrel, while U.S WTI crude declined by nearly 1,7% to 89,61 USD/barrel. Last Friday, the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves.

Interbank USD/VND rose back to 26.000 yesterday, supported by the stronger USD in global markets. The SBV continued to raise the central rate by another VND 7, corresponding to an effective daily ceiling of 26.925.

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