Market Highlight 06.10.2025

At the Government’s regular September press conference, officials reported that Vietnam’s economy continues to show a strong recovery momentum. Preliminary estimates indicate that GDP grew by over 8% in Q3, bringing growth for the first 9 months of 2025 to approximately 7,8%, closely in line with the Government’s baseline scenario. Average CPI for the nine-month period rose slightly above 3%. State budget revenue reached VND 1,92 quadrillion, equivalent to nearly 98% of the full-year target and up 30,5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows totaled USD 28,5 billion, an increase of 15,2%, with realized capital reaching USD 18,8 billion, up 8,5% from a year earlier. Prime Minister has urged Ministries, Agencies, and local authorities to accelerate public investment disbursement, remove obstacles for business and production activities, and strive to achieve the full-year GDP growth target of 8,3 - 8,5%.

Vietnam’s total trade value in September 2025 reached USD 82,5 billion, marking the third consecutive month that total exports and imports surpassed the USD 80 billion threshold. For the first 9 months, total trade amounted to over USD 680 billion, up 17,3% year-on-year. Of this, exports reached USD 348,74 billion (+16%), while imports totaled nearly USD 332 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 16,8 billion. With exports maintaining robust double-digit growth, the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Import-Export Department projected that Vietnam’s total trade turnover could exceed USD 900 billion this year - an all-time record - with a trade surplus of over USD 20 billion, provided no major global disruptions occur in the final quarter.

The USD Index fell an additional 0,15% on Friday, extending its weekly loss to nearly 0,5%, as markets grew increasingly concerned about the potential for a prolonged U.S Government shutdown, which could delay key economic reports. The USD/VND interbank rate closed the final trading session of last week at 26.380, while the official ceiling rate stood at 26.420. With the USD rebounding by 0,4% in early Monday trading, the USD/VND rate is expected to trade in the 26.350 - 26.400 range throughout the day.

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