Market Highlight 06.03.2026

China has set a GDP growth target of 4,5% to 5% for 2026. This marks the lowest target since the 1990s and extends the “around 5%” guidance the Government has used over the past three years. Should China’s economy expand by less than 5% this year, it would represent the weakest growth outcome in more than three decades, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic years. The lower 2026 target reflects greater tolerance for softer growth as the world’s second-largest economy contends with weakening household spending, sluggish investment, and a cooling property market. A less ambitious target also gives China’s leadership more room to restructure the economy amid a complex geopolitical backdrop - including the conflict in the Middle East and the threat of greater trade pressure from U.S President Donald Trump - while continuing to pursue Beijing’s strategic objective of technological self-reliance. With a record trade surplus of USD 1,2 trillion last year, China’s growth has become increasingly reliant on exports, exacerbating global imbalances and drawing pushback from trade partners as well as global institutions such as the IMF.

The USD Index regained momentum on Thursday (+0,5%) as the escalating conflict in the Middle East intensified risk aversion and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Markets will focus on the U.S February nonfarm payrolls report due tonight, which may show a sharp slowdown in hiring.

Domestically, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate traded steadily around 26.220 yesterday. The effective ceiling rate for the session was 26.309.

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