Market Highlight 05.10.2026

U.S september employment data released by the Department of Labor on Friday came in well below market expectations, with payrolls increasing by only 29.000 compared with the forecast of 84.000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4,2% from 4,1% in the previous month but remained historically low, indicating that the labor market is still broadly stable. The September employment report gave FED officials little reason to change their fundamental assessment of the economy, but it sharply reduced the probability of another U.S Central Bank rate hike on 28/10, which has now fallen to just 20%. U.S September CPI data, scheduled for release on 14/10, will be critical in determining the timing of the FED’s next rate hike and the extent of further monetary tightening.

Vietnam’s GDP grew by 9,01% in the first 9 months of the year, the strongest pace in 15 years, with Q3 growth reaching 9,95%. GRDP growth in 29 of 34 localities accelerated compared with the first half of the year; 17 localities recorded growth above 10%, while 12 posted double-digit growth over the full nine-month period. Retail sales and consumer services grew by around 13,1 & 13,6%. Public investment disbursement is estimated at 642,96 trillion VND, equivalent to 62,9% of the annual plan and 202,6 trillion VND higher than the same period last year. Total merchandise trade turnover reached 888,02 billion USD in the first 9 months, up 30,4% YoY. Exports reached 434,30 billion USD, an increase of 24,5%, while imports rose by 36,7% to 453,72 billion USD. The goods trade balance recorded a deficit of 19,42 billion USD, compared with a surplus of 16,87 billion USD in the same period last year. Registered FDI is estimated at 50,36 billion USD, up 76,4%, while disbursed FDI reached 21,07 billion USD, an increase of 12,1%. Achieving the full-year double-digit growth target would require Q4 GDP growth to exceed 12,5%, presenting a major challenge for Ministries, sectors, and localities and requiring the highest level of effort and determination.

Last Friday, interbank USD/VND traded mainly around the 26.000 level. The SBV raised the central rate by another VND 12, lifting the effective daily ceiling to 26.917.

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