Market Highlight 04.12.2025

U.S businesses in November recorded the largest round of job cuts since early 2023, intensifying concerns about a pronounced weakening in the labor market. According to data released by ADP Research on Wednesday evening, private-sector employment fell by 32.000, marking the fourth decline in the past 6 months. Hiring has slowed in recent months as employers contend with cautious consumer sentiment and a volatile macroeconomic environment. The weaker-than-expected ADP report has heightened worries about risks in the U.S labor market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025 next week. The report carries more weight than usual because it is one of the few labor indicators the FED will receive before the meeting, as the U.S Government shutdown has delayed publication of the November nonfarm payrolls report.

The EUR climbed to its highest level in nearly 7 weeks against the USD on Wednesday, supported by data showing improving business activity in Europe, while weaker-than-expected U.S labor figures and expectations of further FED rate cuts continued to weigh on the dollar. Business activity in the eurozone expanded at the fastest pace in two and a half years in November, with strong momentum in services offsetting weakness in manufacturing. Several forecasts suggest the EUR/USD pair could extend gains to the 1,20 - 1,22 range in early 2026.

The interbank USD/VND exchange rate traded mainly around 26.375 - 26.385 on Wednesday amid persistent weakness in the USD on global markets (-1,5% over the past two weeks). Divergent forces are expected to keep the exchange rate within a narrow band of 26.350 - 26.380 today.

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