Market Highlight 03.12.2025

The OECD said the global economy is withstanding the countervailing U.S tariffs better than expected, with growth supported by massive investment in artificial intelligence and by both fiscal and monetary policy measures. The organization has raised its GDP growth forecasts for the United States and the euro area for this year and next, while also slightly upgrading projections for several other major economies in its latest economic outlook update. However, the report still expects global growth to slow to just +2,9% in 2026 from 3,2% in 2025, as the full impact of tariffs on trade activity has yet to be fully reflected. Global trade growth stalled in the second quarter of this year, and higher tariffs are expected to push prices upward, dampening household consumption and corporate investment.

Disruptions to global commerce caused by President Donald Trump’s tariff measures - aimed at rewriting the rules of international trade - have proved difficult for international institutions and economists to forecast. In June, the OECD warned that U.S growth would slow to +1,6% this year, but later raised the estimate to +1,8% in September, and now projects +2%. Surging AI-related investment and the construction of data centers, particularly in the United States, are exerting an increasingly significant influence on economic projections. According to the OECD, the rapid expansion of the technology sector has supported global trade flows, and growth in tech-sector manufacturing is far outpacing that of other industries.

The interbank USD/VND exchange rate traded within a narrow range around 26.375 - 26.385 yesterday and closed the session at 26.380. The State Bank of Vietnam lowered the central reference rate by VND 3 to 25.153, corresponding to an effective ceiling rate of 26.410. The market is expected to continue trading steadily around 26.350 - 26.380 today.

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