Market Highlight 03.09.2026

The USD (+0,85%) and U.S Treasury yields both moved higher after the FED Chair signaled late last week that the Federal Reserve may not yet have completed its fight against inflation. The remarks were his most important statement since taking office earlier this year and were interpreted by the market as a sign that the FED is increasingly likely to raise interest rates in September. Warsh said there was little evidence that current interest rates were restraining the U.S economy, while more favorable inflation reports in recent months had not convinced him that the underlying trend was improving. The market immediately raised the probability of a FED rate hike in September to around 60%. The economic outlook has created divisions within the FED, with a minority of policymakers concerned that interest rates remain too low to contain inflation. Three members voted for a rate hike in July, while several others are now signaling that they may be prepared to follow.

Global oil prices stabilized after three days of sharp gains as U.S President D. Trump said that new attacks on Iran would only continue for a short period, while reiterating his claim that the U.S is in control of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude traded near 91 USD/barrel after rising by 9% over the past three sessions. Brent crude also fell below 96 USD/barrel on Wednesday. Crude oil prices have risen by nearly 60% this year, while refined products such as diesel have increased even more sharply due to the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.

Interbank USD/VND closed at 26.080 before the 2/9 public holiday, with the upward trend expected to resume when the market reopens today. The central rate was lowered by VND 1 on Friday, corresponding to an effective daily ceiling of 26.890.

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