Market Highlight 02.03.2026

The rapidly escalating conflict in the Middle East over the weekend has heightened risk aversion across markets, reinforcing demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as U.S Treasuries and gold. Market attention will shift squarely to the energy complex as trading resumes on Monday morning. A scenario of prolonged instability in the Middle East - together with the second-round effects of higher oil prices - could pose material risks to global growth this year. A particular focal point is crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategically critical waterway that accounts for roughly one quarter of the world’s seaborne oil shipments. Global financial markets have already been under pressure amid recent volatility in U.S tariff policy and waning confidence in the AI boom. Preliminary estimates suggest that if tensions in the Gulf persist for several months, oil prices could surge beyond USD 100 per barrel. Such a move would likely weigh on the global growth outlook and reignite inflation pressures, ultimately making it more difficult for the FED to deliver as many rate cuts as previously anticipated.

The USD Index rose by 0,5% in February, snapping a three-month run of declines, as markets increasingly expect the FED to keep policy rates unchanged at least until June amid renewed concerns over inflation. In the first trading week of March, alongside Iran-related tensions, investors will be watching a slate of key U.S releases - including PMI readings, February retail sales, and, most notably, the nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday.

The USD/VND exchange rate traded steadily around 26.060 in the final session of last week, with the day’s low recorded at 26.025.

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