Market Highlight 31.05.2024

Exports from many Southeast Asian countries are forecasted to grow strongly through 2030. In case of increasing U.S.-China trade tensions, multinational corporations are seeking to reduce over-dependence on the Chinese market, diversify supply chains, or shift production to bypass trade restrictions and mitigate the risk of tariffs. This relocation or expansion of production is most evident in sectors including automobiles and components, electronics, apparel and toys, durable consumer goods, and semiconductors. According to research by Nomura, the majority of U.S. investments are directed towards India and developed Asian countries like Japan, while there is also a noticeable trend of shifting production from China to Southeast Asia. It is estimated that Vietnam’s exports will double by 2030 to more than 750 Billion USD annually, while Malaysia's export turnover will reach 652 Billion USD.

The USD Index declined (-0,35%) yesterday after revised data showed U.S. GDP growth for Q1 was slower than previously reported. Specifically, the U.S. economy grew at a rate of +1,3% year-over-year, down from the previous estimate of +1,6%, due to lower-than-expected consumer spending. The downward revision in first-quarter growth follows recent declines in retail sales and equipment purchases within the economy.

The USD/VND interbank exchange rate was slightly increased yesterday which trading around 25.450. During the day, interbank participants resumed purchasing USD from the SBV, with transaction volumes recorded at nearly 150 Million USD. The U.S. inflation data released tonight could significantly influence market sentiment next week. The USD/VND exchange rate is forecasted to decrease slightly today but will mainly been traded around the 25.450.

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Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Ms. Hong Anh (Financial Markets Researcher) – Email: anhkh@acb.com.vn