Market Highlight 12.08.2024

    The USD Index closed at 103,15 last Friday, slightly lower than at the beginning of the week, capping off a volatile week in global financial markets. U.S July employment data, which declined more sharply than expected, triggered a global stock market downturn last Monday due to heightened concerns about a potential recession in the U.S, as the FED has maintained high policy rates for an extended period. The USD briefly plummeted to 102,16 points as the market anticipated an emergency rate cut by the FED ahead of its September meeting. However, several FED policymakers reassured the market, and Thursday's release of weekly jobless claims data alleviated concerns about the U.S. labor market, aiding the USD's recovery. Speaking over the weekend, FED Governor Michelle Bowman stated that she still sees rising risks to U.S inflation and that the labor market remains robust. Therefore, she is not yet prepared to support a rate cut in September. The likelihood of a 0,5% rate cut on September 18 has now dropped to 50%, down from nearly 70% earlier last week. This week, the market will closely monitor U.S inflation data for production and consumption, as well as July retail sales, to gauge the FED's next policy moves.
    The USD/VND exchange rate continued its downward trend in the final trading session last week, closing near 25.100. Over the past week, the exchange rate fell by about 120 dongs (nearly 0,5%), marking the fourth consecutive week of decline as the prospect of the FED beginning rate cuts draws closer. The exchange rate trend this week will largely depend on the outcome of key U.S. economic data as well as the potential resurgence in foreign currency demand for payments to foreign partners.

Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank assumes no responsibility or liability for any purpose of reference or using the information provided by this newsletter.

Directly contact us to receive market news and consultancy on foreign exchange products and derivatives:

- Financial Markets Division – Email: ktttc@acb.com.vn ; or

- Mr. Khanh Hoang (Financial Markets Senior Analyst) – Email: hoangnk@acb.com.vn

DAILY FORECASTS

USD/VND:
Trend: STABLY
Target: 25.050 - 25.140
Q3: 25.050 - 25.100
Q4: 25.300 - 25.400

EUR/USD:
Trend: DOWN
Target: 1,0870 - 1,0920
Trend End: 1,0980

USD/JPY:
Trend: UP
Target: 147,00 - 148,00
Trend End: 144,00

AUD/USD
Trend: STABLY
Target: 0,6560 - 0,6600
Trend End: 0,6500

USD/VND Transaction Recommendation for T+3 Onwards:
+  The exchange rate is entering a downward adjustment cycle; customers should consider hedging against the decline in USDVND for future revenue streams with Forward, Swap, CCS, and AIRS transactions.
+   VND, USD Loans for 1-5 Years: Customers consider fixing the interest rate and/or hedging against currency risk using IRS or CCS transactions.